Persepsi Ancaman Arab Saudi Dalam Mengintervensi Konflik Yaman Pasca Kejatuhan Rezim Kepemimpinan Abdurabuh Mansour Hadi

Siahaan, Liliana Elisabeth (2026) Persepsi Ancaman Arab Saudi Dalam Mengintervensi Konflik Yaman Pasca Kejatuhan Rezim Kepemimpinan Abdurabuh Mansour Hadi. S1 thesis, Universitas Kristen Indonesia.

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Abstract

Runtuhnya pemerintahan Hadi akibat penguasaan kelompok Houthi atas ibu kota Sana’a, yang dipandang Arab Saudi sebagai ancaman langsung terhadap keamanan perbatasan selatannya, jalur strategis Selat Bab el-Mandeb, serta hegemoni regional Sunni di hadapan ekspansi pengaruh Iran. Ruang lingkup penelitian difokuskan pada periode pasca 2015 hingga perkembangan terkini. Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk menjelaskan mengapa Arab Saudi memutuskan melakukan intervensi militer. Landasan teoritis penelitian ini mengacu pada konsep intervensi militer dan perang sipil untuk menganalisis dinamika konflik, teori proxy war dari Daniel Byman yang menjelaskan pola perang tidak langsung melalui aktor proksi, teori perception and misperception dari Robert Jervis yang menguraikan bagaimana persepsi ancaman membentuk kebijakan luar negeri, serta konsep state fragility dari Robert Rotberg untuk menjelaskan proses pelemahan negara. Metode penelitian bersifat kualitatif deskriptif-analitis dengan tipe studi kasus, menggunakan pengumpulan data primer melalui wawancara mendalam dan data sekunder melalui studi kepustakaan, serta teknik analisis data meliputi reduksi data, penyajian data, dan penarikan kesimpulan dengan validasi melalui triangulasiHasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa persepsi ancaman yang kuat terhadap pengaruh Iran melalui kelompok Houthi menjadi faktor pendorong utama intervensi Arab Saudi melalui Operation Decisive Storm. Namun, intervensi tersebut justru memperpanjang konflik, menyebabkan fragmentasi militer yang lebih dalam, meningkatnya ancaman kelompok ekstremis seperti AQAP, serta mempercepat kondisi Yaman sebagai negara rapuh (fragile state) melalui pelemahan lembaga negara, penghancuran infrastruktur, dan terhambatnya proses rekonsiliasi nasional Kata kunci: Persepsi Ancaman, Intervensi Militer, Perang Proksi, Stabilitas Politik, Yaman. / The collapse of Hadi’s government resulted from the Houthi group’s takeover of the capital, Sana’a, which Saudi Arabia viewed as a direct threat to the security of its southern border, the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Sunni regional hegemony in the face of Iran’s expanding influence. The scope of this study focuses on the period from 2015 to the present. The objective of this study is to explain why Saudi Arabia decided to intervene militarily. The theoretical framework of this study draws on the concepts of military intervention and civil war to analyze conflict dynamics, Daniel Byman’s theory of proxy war, which explains patterns of indirect warfare through proxy actors, Robert Jervis’s theory of perception and misperception, which outlines how perceptions of threat shape foreign policy, and Robert Rotberg’s concept of state fragility to explain the process of state weakening. The research method is descriptive-analytical qualitative using a case study approach, employing primary data collection through in-depth interviews and secondary data through literature review, with data analysis techniques including data reduction, data presentation, and drawing conclusions validated through triangulation. The research findings indicate that a strong perception of the threat posed by Iranian influence through the Houthi group was the primary driving factor behind Saudi Arabia’s intervention via Operation Decisive Storm. However, this intervention has actually prolonged the conflict, leading to deeper military fragmentation, an increased threat from extremist groups such as AQAP, and accelerating Yemen’s transformation into a fragile state through the weakening of state institutions, the destruction of infrastructure, and the stalling of the national reconciliation process Keywords: Perception of Threat, Military Intervention, Proxy War, Political Stability, Yemen.

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