Forecasting The Price Of Broiler Chicken In Ambon City-Maluku Province And The Risks That Increase On The Purchase Power Of The Community (Application of Linear Trend Forecasting Method)

Heatubun, Adolf Bastian and Matatula, Michel J. (2022) Forecasting The Price Of Broiler Chicken In Ambon City-Maluku Province And The Risks That Increase On The Purchase Power Of The Community (Application of Linear Trend Forecasting Method). International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 12 (10). pp. 457-463. ISSN 2250 3153

Text ForecastingThePriceOfBroilerChicken.pdf Download (412kB)

Abstract

The price of broiler meat in Ambon City, Maluku Province, Indonesia has recently continued to increase due to limited supply and strong demand pull. The increase in prices causes people's purchasing power to decrease and results in various risks that the consumer community must face. It is necessary to forecast future prices and find out how big the risk of a decline in consumer purchasing power is. This study aims to predict the upward trend in chicken meat prices in Ambon City, Maluku Province in the next year and analyze the risk of such price increases on the decline in people's purchasing power. Forecasting uses the linear trend method, starting with regression model analysis and following by forecasting the price of broiler meat for the next year’s period (October 2022 to September 2023). Data for analysis is sourced from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS NASIONAL). The results showed that the average price of broiler meat in Ambon City, Maluku Province for 21 periods before forecasting was Rp. 37,476.19 per kg or grew 0.94%. The average price per kg in the forecasting period from October 2022 to September 2023 is Rp. 41,976.18 or a growth of 0.65%. The increase in the average price before the forecast and after the forecast is 12.01% or the price increases by Rp. 4.500,- per kg. This price increase indicates a decrease in consumer purchasing power by an average of 12.01% or equivalent to a decrease in the amount of consumption from 1 kg or 1000 g to the remaining 0.88 kg or 880 g. The decrease in purchasing power and the amount of consumption of broiler meat is categorized as a significant risk figure. Mitigation is carried out by encouraging the development of broiler meat production at the local producer level, although the effect of reducing risk is quite slow. Index Terms- Broiler meat price, forecasting, decreasing purchasing power, risk and mitigation, Ambon City-Maluku Province-Indonesia.

Actions (login required)

View Item