Covid-19 Prediction for Raising People Awareness

Lisapaly, Leonard (2021) Covid-19 Prediction for Raising People Awareness. In: International webinar "The Impacts of Covid-19 on the Sustainable Development of Cities and Settlements. UKI Press.

Text Covid19PredictionforRaising.pdf Download (680kB)

Abstract

During the development of the Covid-19 case in Indonesia, an attempt to predict Covid19 numbers using the normal distribution has been made. The normal (Gaussian) distribution was used because it can mimic the development of Covid-19: a rather flat curve at the beginning of the spread, followed by a rapid increase of the spread, and then followed by the rapid decrease of the spread caused by various human efforts implemented to reduce the spread of the virus, and then finally a rather flat long tail representing the end of the spread. Starting from a model with one normal distribution at the beginning of the spread, we had predicted the Covid-19 case using the stack of multiple normal distributions. This model provided a better prediction than the prediction obtained from a single normal distribution. The method has accurately predicted, for example, a long Covid-19 wave that occurred in Jakarta last year. Keywords: Covid-19, prediction, Monte-Carlo simulation

Actions (login required)

View Item