Red Lines and Blue Waters: U.S. Military Presence and Conflict Anomalies Based on China’s Ten Dash Line Claim

Mandagie, Mike Natanael Norend and Damayanti, Angel (0202) Red Lines and Blue Waters: U.S. Military Presence and Conflict Anomalies Based on China’s Ten Dash Line Claim. International Scientific Research Group & Publishers (ISRG), 4 (2). pp. 415-427. ISSN 2583-7672

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Abstract

China's unilateral renewal of its claim to Taiwan's sovereignty with the issuance of the ten-dash line in 2023 has triggered a strategic military response from the United States, increasing geopolitical tensions and the potential for conflict in the region. This study aims to examine the anomaly of conflict in the absence of open warfare between Taiwan and China despite their sharp friction. The method used is an explanatory case study. Furthermore, Louis Cantori and Steven Spiegel's theory of intrusive systems, along with the concepts of balance of power, bilateral-multilateral arrangements, and conflict anomalies, are applied to analyse how these variables and indicators prevent open warfare. This study argues that the presence of intrusive states in the region has created a balance of power with positive implications, namely maintaining regional stability despite fragile conditions.

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