PROJECTION OF INDONESIA’S ECONOMY USING DYNAMIC MODELING

Rajagukguk, Wilson (2015) PROJECTION OF INDONESIA’S ECONOMY USING DYNAMIC MODELING. In: Proceeding International Conference of Organizational Innovation. ICOl Indonesia 2015. ISBN 978 986 90744 2 1

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Abstract

Development planning can be done if development macro-aggregate are first projected so that it can be implemented effectively and efficiently. The outputs of economy, gross national product (GNP), consumption, savings and capital stock, technological progress and population are baseline data in development planning. Economic dynamic model was employed in this paper. It is economic growth model that inserts time into each variable used. Cobb-Douglass equation was utilized to estimate output. Capital stock at time t-1 became investment at time t. Base year and baseline values for projection was 2010. Cobb-Douglass model parameters were obtained using non-linear econometrics. Population growth rates were from the results of Indonesia’s population projection in 2000-2025 and 2010-2035. Indonesia’s economic macro-aggregate projection for the period of 2010-2035 were produced.

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