Analisis Pengaruh Profitabilitas, Likuiditas, Leverage, Nilai Tukar dan Cost of Goods sold terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan Rokok yang Terdaftar di BEI Pada Periode 2019-2024

Simbolon, Harry Rapillo (2025) Analisis Pengaruh Profitabilitas, Likuiditas, Leverage, Nilai Tukar dan Cost of Goods sold terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan Rokok yang Terdaftar di BEI Pada Periode 2019-2024. S1 thesis, Universitas Kristen Indonesia.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh profitabilitas, likuiditas, leverage, nilai tukar, dan cost of goods sold (COGS) terhadap return saham pada perusahaan rokok yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) selama periode 2019–2024. Industri rokok merupakan sektor strategis yang memberikan kontribusi signifikan terhadap penerimaan negara melalui cukai, meskipun dihadapkan pada tantangan berupa regulasi ketat, fluktuasi nilai tukar, dan peningkatan biaya produksi. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode analisis regresi data panel. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah seluruh perusahaan rokok yang terdaftar di BEI, dan sampel ditentukan dengan teknik purposive sampling berdasarkan kriteria tertentu. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara parsial hanya variabel cost of goods sold (COGS) yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap return saham. Sementara itu, variabel profitabilitas, likuiditas, leverage, dan nilai tukar tidak memiliki pengaruh signifikan. Namun, secara simultan, kelima variabel tersebut berpengaruh signifikan terhadap return saham. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa efisiensi dalam pengelolaan biaya produksi menjadi faktor dominan dalam menentukan kinerja saham perusahaan rokok. Hasil penelitian ini dapat digunakan sebagai bahan pertimbangan oleh investor, manajemen perusahaan, dan pembuat kebijakan dalam mengambil keputusan strategis di sektor industri rokok. Kata Kunci: Return Saham, Profitabilitas, Likuiditas, Leverage, Nilai Tukar, Cost of Goods Sold, Industri Rokok / This study aims to analyze the effect of profitability, liquidity, leverage, exchange rates, and cost of goods sold (COGS) on stock returns in cigarette companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2019- 2024 period. The cigarette industry is a strategic sector that contributes significantly to state revenue through excise taxes, despite facing challenges in the form of strict regulations, exchange rate fluctuations, and increased production costs. This study uses a quantitative approach with a panel data regression analysis method. The population in this study were all cigarette companies listed on the IDX, and the sample was determined using purposive sampling technique based on certain criteria. The results showed that partially only the variable cost of goods sold (COGS) had a significant effect on stock returns. Meanwhile, the variables of profitability, liquidity, leverage, and exchange rates had no significant effect. However, simultaneously, the five variables have a significant effect on stock returns. These findings indicate that efficiency in managing production costs is a dominant factor in determining the stock performance of cigarette companies. The results of this study can be used as a consideration by investors, company management, and policy makers in making strategic decisions in the cigarette industry sector. Keywords: Stock Return, Profitability, Liquidity, Leverage, Exchange Rate, Cost of Goods Sold, Cigarette Industry

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