Pengaruh Harga Jagung, Populasi Ayam, Nilai Tukar, dan Profitabilitas Terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan Subsektor Pakan Ternak di BEI Periode 2015–2024

Kristiani, Selvi (2026) Pengaruh Harga Jagung, Populasi Ayam, Nilai Tukar, dan Profitabilitas Terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan Subsektor Pakan Ternak di BEI Periode 2015–2024. S1 thesis, Universitas Kristen Indonesia.

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Abstract

Industri pakan ternak adalah salah satu bagian penting dalam mendukung sektor peternakan dan ketahanan pangan di negara ini. Meskipun demikian, peforma saham perusahaan di bidang pakan ternak di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) dari tahun 2015 hingga 2024 menunjukkan variasi return yang cukup signifikan. Fenomena tersebut terjadi meskipun permintaan pakan ternak relatif tinggi, yang tercermin dari peningkatan populasi ayam, sehingga menimbulkan kesenjangan antara teori dan kondisi empiris di pasar modal. Permasalahan ini diduga dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor, baik dari sisi penawaran seperti harga jagung sebagai bahan baku utama, faktor permintaan yang diwakili oleh populasi ayam, faktor makroekonomi berupa nilai tukar rupiah, maupun faktor internal perusahaan yaitu profitabilitas. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana pengaruh harga jagung, populasi ayam, nilai tukar, dan profitabilitas terhadap return saham perusahaan subsektor pakan ternak di BEI periode 2015–2024, baik secara parsial maupun simultan. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pendekatan kuantitatif yang bersifat asosiatif. Data yang dianalisis adalah data sekunder yang berbentuk data panel, yang diperoleh dari laporan keuangan perusahaan, Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, dan Kementerian Pertanian. Teknik analisis data dilakukan dengan regresi data panel, dengan pemilihan model terbaik melalui uji Chow dan uji Lagrange Multiplier, serta pengujian hipotesis menggunakan uji t dan uji F. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara terpisah harga jagung, populasi ayam, nilai tukar, dan profitabilitas memberikan pengaruh yang berbeda terhadap return saham perusahaan di sektor pakan ternak. Ketika dianalisis secara bersamaan, keempat variabel tersebut terbukti berpengaruh terhadap return saham. Kesimpulan dari penelitian ini menegaskan bahwa return saham perusahaan pakan ternak tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh tingginya permintaan pakan, tetapi juga sangat dipengaruhi oleh variasi harga bahan baku, kondisi nilai tukar, serta kemampuan perusahaan dalam mempertahankan tingkat profitabilitasnya. Kata Kunci: Harga Jagung, Populasi Ayam, Nilai Tukar, Profitabilitas, Return Saham. / The animal feed industry is one of the important sectors in supporting the livestock sector and national food security in Indonesia. However, the stock performance of animal feed companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2015 to 2024 showed significant fluctuations in stock returns. This phenomenon occurred despite the relatively high demand for animal feed, as reflected in the increasing chicken population, creating a gap between theoretical expectations and empirical conditions in the capital market. This issue is presumed to be influenced by various factors, including supply-side factors such as corn prices as the main raw material, demand-side factors represented by chicken population growth, macroeconomic factors in the form of the rupiah exchange rate, and internal company factors, namely profitability. This study aims to examine the effect of corn prices, chicken population, exchange rates, and profitability on the stock returns of animal feed subsector companies listed on the IDX during the 2015–2024 period, both partially and simultaneously. The research method employed in this study is a quantitative approach with an associative research design. The data analyzed are secondary data in the form of panel data obtained from company financial statements, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and the Ministry of Agriculture. Data analysis was conducted using panel data regression, with the best model selected through the Chow test and Lagrange Multiplier test, while hypothesis testing was carried out using the t-test and F-test. The results of the study indicate that, partially, corn prices, chicken population, exchange rates, and profitability have different effects on the stock returns of companies in the animal feed subsector. Simultaneously, these four variables were proven to significantly affect stock returns. The findings of this study confirm that the stock returns of animal feed companies are not only influenced by high feed demand but are also strongly affected by fluctuations in raw material prices, exchange rate conditions, and the companies’ ability to maintain their profitability levels. Keywords: Corn Prices, Chicken Population, Exchange Rates, Profitability, Stock Returns.

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