PENGARUH MANAJEMEN PAJAK, BEBAN PAJAK TANGGUHAN DAN PROFITABILITAS TERHADAP MANAJEMEN LABA PADA EMITEN IDX SEKTOR CONSUMER GOODS PERIODE 2020 – 2024

Rumapea, Gresia Oktaviyanti (2026) PENGARUH MANAJEMEN PAJAK, BEBAN PAJAK TANGGUHAN DAN PROFITABILITAS TERHADAP MANAJEMEN LABA PADA EMITEN IDX SEKTOR CONSUMER GOODS PERIODE 2020 – 2024. S1 thesis, Universitas Kristen Indonesia.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini memfokuskan kajian pada determinasi manajemen laba yang dipicu oleh kebijakan manajemen pajak, beban pajak tangguhan, dan profitabilitas. Pengujian dilakukan secara parsial maupun simultan pada emiten IDX sektor Consumer Goods periode 2020–2024. Melalui desain kuantitatif asosiatif, data sekunder dikumpulkan dari laporan keuangan tahunan yang bersumber dari situs resmi IDX. Dari total populasi sebanyak 37 emiten, penerapan teknik purposive sampling menghasilkan 22 emiten yang memenuhi kriteria, sehingga diperoleh 110 total observasi selama lima tahun pengamatan. Estimasi aktivitas manajemen laba mengacu pada nilai discretionary accruals dengan formulasi Modified Jones Model. Variabel manajemen pajak diukur lewat proksi Effective Tax Rate (ETR), beban pajak tangguhan dihitung menggunakan rasio beban pajak tangguhan terhadap total aset (DTE) berbasis transformasi logaritma natural, dan profitabilitas direpresentasikan oleh Net Profit Margin (NPM). Analisis regresi data panel diterapkan dalam pengujian ini, di mana Fixed Effect Model (FEM) ditetapkan sebagai model estimasi terbaik berdasarkan hasil akhir Uji Chow, Uji Hausman, dan Uji Lagrange Multiplier (probabilitas 0,0639). Guna mengatasi masalah heteroskedastisitas, koreksi dilakukan melalui metode White diagonal standard errors dengan bantuan program EViews versi 12. Berdasarkan hasil olah data statistik, diperoleh kesimpulan sebagai berikut: (1) variabel manajemen pajak terbukti tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap tindakan manajemen laba (probabilitas 0,0723 > 0,05), sehingga hipotesis Ha_1 ditolak; (2) beban pajak tangguhan menunjukkan pengaruh positif yang signifikan terhadap manajemen laba (koefisien 0,129069; probabilitas 0,0094 < 0,05), yang berarti Ha_2 diterima; (3) profitabilitas memiliki pengaruh signifikan dengan koefisien negatif terhadap manajemen laba (koefisien -0,003535; probabilitas 0,0000 < 0,05), sehingga hipotesis Ha_3 dinyatakan tidak didukung karena arahnya bertolak belakang dari asumsi awal; dan (4) kombinasi ketiga variabel independen tersebut secara simultan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap manajemen laba (probabilitas F-statistic 0,037486 < 0,05), sehingga Ha_4 diterima. Kontribusi model ini ditunjukkan oleh nilai Adjusted R-squared sebesar 13,60%, sedangkan sisa variasi manajemen laba lainnya dijelaskan oleh faktor di luar penelitian seperti leverage, ukuran emiten, kualitas audit, serta mekanisme tata kelola emiten yang sengaja tidak dimasukkan karena batasan ruang lingkup serta karakteristik data sampel. Kata Kunci: manajemen pajak, beban pajak tangguhan, profitabilitas, manajemen laba, fixed effect model, consumer goods, IDX. / This study focuses its analysis on the determination of earnings management driven by tax management, deferred tax expense, and profitability. The assessment is conducted both partially and simultaneously within the IDX Consumer Goods sector for the period 2020–2024. Utilizing a quantitative associative design, secondary data were gathered from annual financial statements sourced from the official IDX website. Out of 37 companies in the population, a purposive sampling method identified 22 qualified emiten, generating 110 total observations over a five-year period. Earnings management is captured through discretionary accruals using the Modified Jones Model. Tax management is represented by the Effective Tax Rate (ETR), deferred tax expense is measured by the ratio of deferred tax expense to total assets (DTE) with natural logarithm transformation, and profitability is proxied by the Net Profit Margin (NPM). The statistical approach employs panel data regression, where the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) was selected as the optimal estimator based on the Chow Test, Hausman Test, and Lagrange Multiplier Test results (probability 0.0639). To mitigate heteroscedasticity issues, the model applies White diagonal standard errors correction via EViews version 12. The statistical estimations reveal the following outcomes: (1) tax management exerts no significant effect on earnings management (probability 0.0723 > 0.05), leading to the rejection of Ha_1; (2) deferred tax expense demonstrates a significant positive effect on earnings management (coefficient 0.129069; probability 0.0094 < 0.05), thus Ha_2 is accepted; (3) profitability shows a significant negative effect on earnings management (coefficient -0.003535; probability 0.0000 < 0.05), meaning Ha_3 is unsupported due to its inverse direction from the initial assumption; and (4) simultaneously, the three independent variables significantly affect earnings management (probability F-statistic 0.037486 < 0.05), confirming the acceptance of Ha_4. The Adjusted R-squared value of 13.60% indicates that the model explains the variation of earnings management up to this percentage, while external factors such as leverage, firm size, audit quality, and corporate governance mechanisms account for the remaining variance, which were excluded due to scope limitations and sample data properties. Keywords: tax management, deferred tax expense, profitability, earnings management, fixed effect model, consumer goods, indonesia stock exchange

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