Bifurkasi Rantai Pasok Semikonduktor Global Akibat Perang Teknologi Amerika Serikat Dan Tiongkok Tahun 2015-2022

Simatupang, Lara Vonny Eugene (2026) Bifurkasi Rantai Pasok Semikonduktor Global Akibat Perang Teknologi Amerika Serikat Dan Tiongkok Tahun 2015-2022. S1 thesis, Universitas Kristen Indonesia.

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Abstract

Persaingan teknologi antara Amerika Serikat dengan Tiongkok dengan semikonduktor sebagai episentrumnya telah menggeser logika pengorganisasian ekonomi global dari efisiensi pasar menuju keamanan nasional. Penelitian ini menganalisis dampak perang teknologi antara Amerika Serikat (AS) dan Tiongkok periode 2015–2022 terhadap fragmentasi rantai pasok semikonduktor global. Kerangka teoretis penelitian ini didasarkan pada teori Weaponized Interdependence oleh Farrell & Newman yang dilengkapi dengan perspektif Geoeconomics dari Blackwill. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah kualitatif eksplanatori dengan desain studi kasus instrumental. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa AS secara efektif mengeksploitasi dominasi yurisdiksinya atas perangkat lunak Electronic Design Automation (EDA), paten arsitektur chip, dan peralatan manufaktur semikonduktor (SME) melalui aktivitas chokepoint effect dan panopticon effect. Tekanan ini memaksa aktor ketiga melakukan sensor mandiri demi menghindari sanksi sekunder, sehingga mengisolasi Tiongkok dari ekosistem digital canggih. Sebaliknya, kondisi ini memicu respons Defensive Self-Exclusion oleh Tiongkok melalui strategi de-Americanization yang masif. Temuan penelitian menegaskan bahwa ambisi kemandirian Tiongkok menunjukkan keberhasilan relatif dengan Beijing berhasil mendominasi kapasitas produksi pada legacy nodes (≥ 28nm), namun menghadapi batas atas mekanis yang tebal pada advanced nodes (sub-7nm). Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa perang teknologi tersebut telah mengubah prinsip pengorganisasian sirkuit logistik global dari cost-driven menjadi security-driven, menyebabkan kecenderungan bifurkasi rantai pasok yang bersifat parsial dan asimetris sehingga membagi dunia ke dalam dua ekosistem paralel./The technological competition between the United States and Tiongkok, with semiconductors at its epicenter, has shifted the organizing logic of the global economy from market efficiency toward national security. This study analyzes the impact of the tech war between the United States (US) and Tiongkok during the 2015–2022 period on the fragmentation of the global semiconductor supply chain. The theoretical framework of this research is based on Farrell & Newman's theory of Weaponized Interdependence, complemented by Blackwill's perspective on Geoeconomics. Utilizing a qualitative explanatory method with an instrumental case study design, the research demonstrates that the US effectively exploited its jurisdictional dominance over Electronic Design Automation (EDA) software, chip architecture patents, and Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment (SME) through the activation of the Chokepoint and Panopticon effects. This pressure forced third-party actors to exercise self-censorship to avoid secondary sanctions, thereby isolating Tiongkok from the advanced digital ecosystem. Conversely, this condition triggered a Defensive Self-Exclusion response from Tiongkok through a massive de-Americanization strategy. The findings confirm that Tiongkok's self-sufficiency ambition achieved relative success; Beijing successfully dominated production capacity in legacy nodes (≥ 28nm) but faced a thick mechanical ceiling barrier in advanced nodes (sub-7nm). This study concludes that the technology war has transformed the organizing principles of global logistics circuits from being cost-driven to security-driven, inducing a tendency toward partial and asymmetric supply chain bifurcation that effectively divides the world into two parallel ecosystems.

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