Analisis Risiko Perubahan Harga, Nilai Tukar dan Produk Domestik Bruto Terhadap Ekspor Non-Migas

Nalle, Mikris (2022) Analisis Risiko Perubahan Harga, Nilai Tukar dan Produk Domestik Bruto Terhadap Ekspor Non-Migas. S2 thesis, Universitas Kristen Indonesia.

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Abstract

Belakangan ini dan seterusnya sektor non-migas memberikan kontribusi yang dominan terhadap ekspor Indonesia. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisis risiko ekspor non-migas Indonesia. Faktor risiko utama dari ekspor Non-Migas muncul dari sisi permintaan yang teridentifikasi adalah (1) harga ekspor non-migas turun, (2) pendapatan Negara mitra dagang Indonesia turun dan (3) Rupiah terdepresiasi terhadap dolar amerika serikat. Dengan menggunakan data dari tahun 2001 sampai dengan 2020, dampak dari ketiga fakto risiko masing-masing adalah tidak signifikan (nol), 1,50 dan 0,70. Artinya, pergerakan harga non-migas tidak memengaruhi ekspor Indonesia, produk non-migas Indonesia inelastis. Oleh karena itu, perubahan harga non-migas bukan menjadi faktor risiko. Elastisitas pendapatan negara mitra dagang terhadap ekspor Indonesia adalah 1,50. Artinya, kenaikan 1 persen pendapatan negara mitra dagang mengakibatkan kenaikan ekspor Indonesia sebesar 1,50 persen. Namun, jika pendapatan negara mitra dagang turun 1 persen, ekspor Indonesia turun sebesar 1,5 persen. Sedangkan elastisitas dollar amerika serikat (USD) terhadap ekspor non-migas adalah 0,70. Artinya, bila USD terapresiasi terhadap rupiah 1 persen, ekspor non-migas turun 0,70 persen. Perkiraan satu kuartal periode ke depan banyak Negara akan mengalami resesi. Demikian juga negara mitra dagang Indonesia diperkirakan mengalami penurunan pendapatan, peluangnya 70 persen. Dari sisi peluang pemerintah Indonesia tidak bisa melakukan mitigasi. Diperkirakan Fed Fund Rate (FFR). suku bunga dana federal akan naik karena inflasi Amerika Serikat sudah mencapai 8,5 persen. Kenaikan FFR akan membuat rupiah terdepresiasi diprediksi peluangnya 90 persen. Dengan demikian mitigasi pemerintah dari sisi peluang menaikkan suku bunga acuan dan pengendalian pembelian dollar amerika serikat saat resesi. Dari sisi dampak pemerintah memberikan fasilitas keringanan pajak ekspor sehingga mendorong peningkatan ekspor yang berkontribusi bagi peningkatan penerimaan negara dalam bentuk dolar. Sehingga dalam jangka panjang rupiah terapresiasi./ In recent times, the non-oil and gas sector has made a dominant contribution to Indonesia's exports. The purpose of this research is to analyze the risks of Indonesia's non-oil and gas exports. The main risk factors for Non-Oil and Gas exports emerged from the identified demand side, namely (1) the price of non-oil and gas exports fell, (2) the income of Indonesia's trading partners fell and (3) the Rupiah depreciated against the United States dollar. Using data from 2001 to 2020, the impact of the three risk factors is insignificant (zero), 1.50 and 0.70, respectively. This means that non-oil and gas price movements do not affect Indonesia's exports, Indonesia's non-oil and gas products are inelastic. Therefore, changes in non-oil and gas prices are not a risk factor. The income elasticity of trading partner countries for Indonesia's exports is 1.50. That is, a 1 percent increase in the income of trading partner countries results in an increase in Indonesian exports of 1.50 percent. However, if the income of trading partner countries decreases by 1 percent, Indonesia's exports fall by 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, the elasticity of the United States dollar (USD) against non-oil and gas exports is 0.70. That is, if the USD appreciates 1 percent against the rupiah, non-oil and gas exports will fall 0.70 percent. It is estimated that in the next one quarter period many countries will experience a recession. Likewise, Indonesia's trading partner countries are estimated to experience a decrease in income, the chance is 70 percent. In terms of opportunities, the Indonesian government cannot do mitigation. It is estimated that the Fed Funds Rate (FFR)/federal funds rate will increase because US inflation has reached 8.5 percent. The increase in the FFR will make the rupiah depreciate with a predicted 90 percent chance. Thus, the government mitigates the opportunity to raise the benchmark interest rate and control purchases of US dollars during a recession. In terms of impact, the government provides export tax relief facilities so as to encourage increased exports which contribute to increased state revenues in the form of dollars. So that in the long run the rupiah appreciates.

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